Upstream: Extraction, processing, and manufacturing

The model's input assumptions for nickel's ore-to-metal ratio exemplify wider industry trends. Although ore grades have declined, improvements in exploration and processing technologies have expanded the range of economically recoverable deposits, allowing upstream efficiency to remain relatively constant.¹²⁸ Nickel illustrates how technological improvements can offset declining ore quality and help maintain a stable supply base.

The more significant upstream dynamic concerns the scale of processing rather than its efficiency. Under the model's assumptions, ore input increases substantially throughout the projection period, continuing to grow even after refined output begins to plateau. As a result, the physical footprint of nickel extraction—including land disturbance, water use, waste generation, and GHG emissions¹²⁹—continues to expand through to 2050 even though upstream efficiency remains broadly unchanged. This effect is reinforced by the expected growth of laterite mining, which relies on relatively energy-intensive processing routes and may increase the carbon intensity of future production.¹³⁰

The model assumes that losses between refining and finished product remain proportionally modest and relatively stable throughout the projection period. Notably, much of this material is not permanently lost from the system. New scrap generated during stainless steel and superalloy production is valuable, produced in known compositions, and is routinely recycled directly back into production. As a result, improving manufacturing yield offers more limited gains than for some other materials, although these production scrap streams continue to play an important role in supporting secondary supply, as discussed in the downstream section below.