Supply-demand balance and resilience

Nickel's baseline shows a system that remains broadly in balance throughout the projection period. Demand closely tracks realised supply, unmet demand remains negligible, and the service level stays above the threshold required to meet demand for almost the entire period, with only a brief gap in the early 2020s. Desired demand is largely met, with only occasional periods of shortfall—unlike several of the other materials, where the gap between desired and actual demand is persistent. Within the baseline, nickel is the material least constrained by physical availability.

Two aspects of the supply-demand balance are particularly noteworthy. First, primary supply expands substantially through the 2020s before plateauing at around four million tonnes in the early 2030s, fluctuating only modestly thereafter rather than entering a sustained decline. This is consistent with a supply system capable of responding to rising demand supported by technological improvements and continuing investment that have expanded economically recoverable resources over time. Second, although nickel includes an active strategic reserve mechanism within the baseline, the reserve is neither drawn upon nor replenished during the projection period. The supply-demand balance is therefore maintained entirely through the interaction of primary and secondary supply, without relying on reserve releases to offset shortages.¹²⁶

These results should, however, be interpreted alongside two important structural caveats. Nickel is modelled as a single, undifferentiated global pool, which can mask shortfalls in specific streams, such as battery-grade material, even where the aggregate balance looks healthy.¹²⁷ The model is also region-agnostic and therefore does not capture the geopolitical concentration of nickel production and refining. A global balance does not show disruptions affecting the small number of countries and firms that dominate supply. The model therefore suggests that nickel is physically capable of meeting projected demand, but obscures two of the material’s most important sources of criticality: grade-specific constraints and supply-chain concentration.